PRESIDENT’S SOAPBOX
A couple of weeks ago I wrote about the predictions for sunspot cycle
- The usual predictors were posting grim predictions, one of the
quietest cycles ever. But there was an alternative prediction that it
could be a very active cycle, but few details were available. It turns
out these folks are real scientists, funded by the National Science
Foundation and NASA. Their prediction is based on a new theory of solar
magnetic behavior, and tested it by predicting previous cycles based on
historical data. Their work has just appeared in the journal Solar
Physics. So here are the predictions. The “panel of experts” predicts
a peak sunspot number of 115. The new theory is predicting that Sunspot
Cycle 25 will peak with a maximum sunspot number somewhere between
approximately 210 and 260, which would put the new cycle in the company
of the top few ever observed. You can read a nice summary article on
the theory and its prediction at
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201207142308.htm. Relax, there’s
no math involved. This will certainly be interesting to watch over the
next several years. …_._ de Bill Michne, 252-249-1175,
drmichne73@gmail.com.
SOLAR NUMBERS TODAY
NOAA reported that solar activity was low during the 24 hour period
ending yesterday at 5 pm local. There is 1 numbered sunspot region on
the Sun facing Earth this morning. There were two yesterday. On Sunday
the observed Solar Flux Index (SFI) at Penticton was 81. Solar activity
is expected be very low with a slight chance of C-class flares through
Wednesday The index is predicted to register 82 today and 83 on Tuesday
and Wednesday. The SFI 90 day trailing average is 82, up one from last week.
The Earth’s geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled yesterday. It is
expected to be quiet through Wednesday. The estimated Kp-index of 1
reported at 7 a.m. local this morning indicates we are currently
experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions.
For the next several days, we can expect good daytime and good nighttime
operating conditions on 80 and 40 meters, fair on 30 and 20, and poor on
the higher bands. Six Meters has seen significant MSK144 activity over
the weekend and into this morning. We are at the peak of the annual
Geminid meteor shower. It peaked last night. We should hear more voice
activity as the short Winter Es season is upon us.
Oh, and by the way, there will be a total solar eclipse today. You will
have to be in southern Chile and Argentina to experience it.
For an explanation of numbers used in our PARSgram, see the excellent
article written by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA at
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
HAM EQUIPMENT FOR SALE, TRADE, OR WANTED
For listing in the PARSgram send me your amateur radio related items
that you have for sale, trade, or wanted. PLEASE let me know when you
have have sold your item or your listing is no longer needed. Listings
will EXPIRE AFTER 90 DAYS unless I hear otherwise.–Jim.
**For Sale**
Heil Foot Switch, push to transmit. $15.00. Contact Ed Valentine, W2YPM,
at 252-637-3161 or w2ypm@earthlink.net. (20201019)
**Estate Ham Equipment For Sale**
Eddie Lyon, K4NGR, provided a long list of equipment he is wishing to
sell on behalf of the wife of a fellow ham who passed several weeks ago.
Major items now remaining on the list with prices originally paid
include a Yaesu FT2000/HF Transceiver $2,115 with Yaesu MD-100 Mic $179
and Yaesu external speaker with phone patch and an Ammeritron AL-811H
Amp $999. “These prices are what he had paid for them brand new so
whatever we can get for them to help his wife Pat out will be most
appreciated.” For a complete list of the remianing items or more
information please contact Eddie at ELyon47@aol.com or 540-905-5839.
(20201019, 20201102)
PARS CALENDAR:
* Dec 26, PARS MONTHLY MEETING, Saturday, 9am, Virtual Meeting via
“Zoom” or at Brantleys Restaurant, Oriental. For more info, contact Bill
Michne, WM3X, 252-249-1175 or drmichne73@gmail.com.
* Jan 30, PARS MONTHLY MEETING, Saturday, 9am, Virtual Meeting via
“Zoom” or at Brantleys Restaurant, Oriental. For more info, contact Bill
Michne, WM3X, 252-249-1175 or drmichne73@gmail.com.
LOCAL NETS OF INTEREST TO PARS MEMBERS:
* Wednesdays, Pamlico Emergency Net Practice and Rag Chew/ARES, 7:30
pm, Oriental Repeater, 147.210 + (PL151.4).
* Thursdays, “DownEast/Pamlico Six Meter Net”, 8 pm local, 50.200 MHz,
USB. A non-directed open net to promote operation on the ‘Magic Band’.
(For more nets see www.arrl.org/arrl-net-directory-search )
PARS WEB SITE: https://www.n4prs.org/
Our Web Master is Paul Jodoin, K4MMB, 561-308-3456, PARSwebman@gmail.com
OUR COVID NUMBERS
According to our County COVID-19 Task Force, there continues to be
substantial community spread here. Towndock reports we have seen 464
cases as of the 13th, on the 7th there were 440. On that date 27 cases
were active; none of those in the Prison. State data now reflects 5
deaths. My rough calculation is that just above 4 percent of County
residents have contracted COVID. The risk might not seem great for some,
but for those that caught it too high and a very difficult time. Having
COVID is no way to spend the holidays.
Please mask up in public and stay safe.
73, Jim AI4WL
——
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